Online Desk: Bangladesh’s dependence on India and China will increase if the United States and potentially other Western countries go for further pressure and sanctions, such as visa bans on top officials, the International Crisis Group has said.

“It could also cause the government to increase its dependence on India and China, as the US (and potentially other Western countries) will probably respond with sanctions, such as visa bans on top officials,” according to the October 2023-March 2024 edition of “On the Horizon” report of the Crisis Group.

The International Crisis Group is an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies aiming for a more peaceful world.

BNP has declared October 28 for a movement to topple the government and the ruling party Awami League says BNP’s downfall will start on that day.

So far, a peaceful atmosphere prevails in the country.

A disputed election could trigger fierce anti-government protests, according to the International Crisis Group.

Election-related activities, such as campaigning and voting, could become flashpoints for violent attacks; spillover could also increase from restive states in India’s northeast, it said.

What to watch for in the coming weeks and months as mentioned by the Crisis Group

1. A high-stakes and potentially violent election in January 2024.
2. The ruling Awami League is expected to ignore calls for it to step down and hand power to a caretaker government that would oversee the election.
3. Rival supporters could clash in street battles or attack party offices or candidates.
4. Islamist groups could become more active in opposing the government.
5. Facing the prospect of a disputed poll, the opposition will probably boycott the election and could become radicalised, adopting more violent tactics.
6. Lack of hope, insecurity and poverty threaten to create a vicious cycle in which desperate Rohingyas – particularly young men – could join criminal gangs and armed groups, further fuelling the violence.